Unplugged Practice Test: Logical Reasoning Set 2, Question 19 (Main Conclusion)
Taking the test? Finish it first. This page shows the answer.
- Main Conclusion questions ask for the single claim the rest of the argument is there to support.
- Ask which claim the other sentences back up. The conclusion often sits in the middle, and the last sentence is often just evidence.
- Every question on this test is original, written to the same logical skeletons as real questions, and Steve checked every one himself before release.
The question
Economist: Ever since trade began, people have used forecasts to tell themselves what is coming. On this point the claims of formal modeling are no different from the omens that merchants once read in the weather. Whether a model is true comes down to how well it calms a market's nerves. So although modeling can point to real successes, it falls short of full truth, as its regular failure to catch the turns that later data make obvious plainly shows.
19. Of the following, which one best expresses the conclusion that the economist's argument is meant to establish?
- (A)Formal modeling regularly misses the turns that later data make obvious.
- (B)Formal modeling is no truer than the omens merchants once read in the weather.
- (C)Formal modeling is nothing more than superstition.
- (D)Formal modeling, like the old omens, tries to tell people what is coming.
- (E)Formal modeling is true only in part.
EWhy (E) is correct
The economist strings together a comparison to old weather omens, a claim about what makes a model true, and a mention of modeling's real successes, all of it building to the point that modeling falls short of full truth. (E) states that conclusion directly, since true only in part is exactly what falls short of full truth means.
Why the other answers are wrong
AWhy (A) is wrong
(A) is the evidence offered for the shortfall, modeling's regular failure to catch turns later data make obvious, not the conclusion itself.
BWhy (B) is wrong
(B) names the comparison to old omens used along the way, not what the argument is built to establish.
CWhy (C) is wrong
(C) overstates the point; the economist grants modeling real successes, not that it's nothing more than superstition.
DWhy (D) is wrong
(D) is the opening premise that sets up the omen comparison, not the conclusion drawn from it.
Common questions
What type of question is this?
Main Conclusion. Main Conclusion questions ask for the single claim the rest of the argument is there to support.
How do I get better at Main Conclusion questions?
Ask which claim the other sentences back up. The conclusion often sits in the middle, and the last sentence is often just evidence. The free LSAT cheat sheet lists the wrong-answer patterns to watch for on every type.
